Projection Assumptions

Office of Institutional Research and Analysis Enrolment Projection Methodology

The projected data provided by IRA for the New Budget Model was based on the following methodologies:

Enrolment Projection Model

Undergraduate Enrolment Projection

To project undergraduate enrolment for 2016-17, IRA’s undergraduate enrolment projection model uses McMaster’s actual 2016-17 summer and fall enrolment information as of each government count date, and estimates 2016-17 Winter enrolment using historical Fall-to-Winter ratios.
Undergraduate enrolment estimates for 2017-18 to 2021-22 are generated by applying the Enrolment Management Team’s (EMT) level 1 intake targets for 2017-18, for all years until 2021-22.

To project movement between levels 2 and above, within each Faculty and between Faculties, the projection applies a flow through methodology that incorporates each Faculty’s mean retention rates over the past 3 years. 

Graduate Enrolment Projection

Since no level 1 intake targets are set at the graduate level, the graduate enrolment projection model is a flow-through model based on the following two elements:

  1. Each Faculty’s historical level 1 intake; and
  2. The transition probabilities of students from levels 2 and above.
Level 1 Intake:

The 2016-17 level 1 intake (i.e. as of November 1, 2016) was applied as the anticipated level 1 intake from 2017-18 to 2021-22.

Flow through between levels:

Similar to the undergraduate projection, to project movement between levels 2 and above, within each Faculty and between Faculties, the graduate projection applies a flow through methodology that incorporates each Faculty’s average transition rates over the past 3 years.

Notes regarding both undergraduate and graduate enrolment projection models:

  • Actual enrolment data at the student level are used to simulate the projections.
  • The projection data includes Fiscal Full-Time Equivalents (FFTEs), headcount and Basic Income Unit (BIU) counts by faculty, level, registration status, immigration status, and fee category.

Student Units Taught Projection Model

Undergraduate Units Taught Projection 

Actual units taught at the Faculty level, as of November 1, 2016, are used to provide the basis for the model. This information along with November Winter units taught statistics are used to generate the projected units taught for the winter 2017 term. In order to project five-year units taught, undergraduate enrolment projections and historical percentages reflecting units taught distribution, based on student home faculty, student academic level, course home faculty, and course level are used.

Tuition Fee Revenue Projection

Background

Starting in the 2013-14 academic year, MTCU implemented a new Tuition Framework that capped the institutional overall allowable increase in tuition fees at 3% per-year.  Subject to this cap, the limits on allowable fee increase by program category are as follows:

MTCU Tuition Fee Framework

Program Category Maximum Allowable Annual Increase in Tuition Fees
Arts & Science Undergraduate or other 3.0% for all students
Professional Undergraduate or any Graduate Program 5.0% for students who start in or after 2013-14; and
4.0% for student who were enrolled in 2012-13
Overall Average Tuition Fee Increase 3.0%

Based on the Ministry’s Framework, McMaster’s approved internal tuition framework in 2016-17 shown below as Model 1.0.

Model 1.0

Program Category Maximum Allowable Annual Increase in Tuition Fees
Arts & Science Undergraduate or other 3.0% for all students
Professional Undergraduate 5% for level 1; and 3.7 % for all other levels
Graduate Research (programs with a thesis component) 0% for all students
Graduate Professional (programs with course work only) 5% for level 1; and 2.0 % for all other levels
Overall Average Tuition Fee Increase 3.0%

 

Current Status

To estimate McMaster’s tuition revenue related to eligible programs and students from 2016-17 to 2021-22, IRA applied McMaster’s 2016-17 internal tuition framework to the University’s projected enrolment until 2021-22, and applied fee assessment methodology, which projects the net tuition revenue the University will generate.
To project tuition revenue related to ineligible programs (i.e. programs not funded by MTCU) and ineligible students (e.g. international enrolments), since they are not bound by the Tuition Fee Framework, IRA applied the actual 2016-17 tuition fee percentage increases to 2016-17 and beyond.
Finally, Divinity, Interns & Residents, and Collaborative Nursing were excluded from the projection.
Please note that the tuition revenue could change if a program does not set the fee at the maximum level allowed. Also, actual fee revenues also may vary based on changes in enrolment and tuition fee assessments.
Should you have questions concerning the undergraduate or graduate enrolment projection models or would like detailed enrolment data by faculty, please contact Jin Zhang, Senior Analyst (zhangjn@mcmaster.ca) or Will Huang, Programmer and Statistician (huangwl@mcmaster.ca) from the Office of Institutional Research and Analysis.