Projection Assumptions

Office of Institutional Research and Analysis Enrolment Projection Methodology

The projected data provided by IRA for the Budget Model was based on the following methodologies:

Enrolment Projection Model

Undergraduate Enrolment Projection

To project undergraduate enrolment for 2017-18, IRA’s undergraduate enrolment projection model uses McMaster’s actual 2017-18 summer and fall enrolment information as of each government count date, and estimates 2017-8 Winter enrolment using historical Fall-to-Winter ratios.
Undergraduate enrolment estimates for 2018-19 to 2022-23 are generated by applying the Enrolment Management Team’s (EMT) level 1 intake targets for 2018-19, for all years until 2022-23.

To project movement between levels 2 and above, within each Faculty and between Faculties, the projection applies a flow through methodology that incorporates each Faculty’s mean retention rates over the past 3 years. 

Graduate Enrolment Projection

Since no level 1 intake targets are set at the graduate level, the graduate enrolment projection model is a flow-through model based on the following two elements:

  1. Each Faculty’s historical level 1 intake; and
  2. The transition probabilities of students from levels 2 and above.
Level 1 Intake:

The 2017-18 level 1 intake (i.e. as of November 1, 2017) was applied as the anticipated level 1 intake from 2018-19 to 2022-23.

Flow through between levels:

Similar to the undergraduate projection, to project movement between levels 2 and above, within each Faculty and between Faculties, the graduate projection applies a flow through methodology that incorporates each Faculty’s average transition rates over the past 3 years.

Notes regarding both undergraduate and graduate enrolment projection models:

  • Actual enrolment data at the student level are used to simulate the projections.
  • The projection data includes Fiscal Full-Time Equivalents (FFTEs), headcount and Weighted Grant Unit (WGU) counts by faculty, level, registration status, immigration status, and fee category.

Student Units Taught Projection Model

Undergraduate Units Taught Projection 

Actual units taught at the Faculty level, as of November 1, 2017, are used to provide the basis for the model. This information along with the Winter term units taught statistics in December are used to generate the projected units taught for 2017/18. In order to project five-year units taught, undergraduate enrolment projections and historical percentages reflecting units taught distribution are used. The historical percentages are based on student home faculty, student academic level, course home faculty, and course level.

Tuition Fee Revenue Projection

Background

Starting in the 2013-14 academic year, MAESD implemented a new Tuition Framework that capped the institutional overall allowable increase in tuition fees at 3% per-year.  Subject to this cap, the limits on allowable fee increase by program category are as follows:

MAESD Tuition Fee Framework

Program Category Maximum Allowable Annual Increase in Tuition Fees
Arts & Science Undergraduate or other 3.0% for all students
Professional Undergraduate or any Graduate Program 5.0% for students who start in or after 2013-14; and
4.0% for student who were enrolled in 2012-13
Overall Average Tuition Fee Increase 3.0%

Based on the Ministry’s Framework, McMaster’s approved internal tuition framework in 2017-18 shown below as Model 1.0.

Domestic

Program Category Maximum Allowable Annual Increase in Tuition Fees
Arts & Science Undergraduate or other 3.0% for level I for 2017/18 – 2019/20; 2.25% for level II and above for 2017/18 - 2018/19; 3% for level II and above for 2019/20; 0% for all levels for 2020/21 – 2022/23
Professional Undergraduate 5% for level I for 2017/18 – 2019/20; 5% for level II and above for 2017/18 – 2018/19; 3.35% for level II and above for 2019/20; 0% for all levels for 2020/21 – 2022/23
Graduate Research (programs with a thesis component) 2% for level I for 2017/18; 0% for level II and above for 2017/18; 0% for all levels for 2018/19 – 2022/23
Graduate Professional (programs with course work only) 5% for all levels for 2017/18 – 2018/19; 5% for level I for 2019/20; 2.0 % for level II and above for 2019/20; 0% for all levels for 2020/21 – 2022/23
Overall Average Tuition Fee Increase 3.0%

International

PROGRAM CATEGORY MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE ANNUAL INCREASE IN TUITION FEES
Arts & Science Undergraduate or other 8.0% for level I for 2017/18 – 2019/20, 4% for level II and above for 2017/18 – 2019/20; 0% for all levels for 2020/21 – 2022/23
Professional Undergraduate Same as above (Arts & Science)
Graduate Research (programs with a thesis component) 2% for level I for 2017/18; 0% for level II and above for 2017/18; 0% for all levels for 2018/19 – 2022/23
Graduate Professional (programs with course work only) 8% for level I for 2017/18 – 2019/20; 4% for level II and above for 2017/18 – 2019/20; 0% for all levels for 2020/21 – 2022/23

 

Current Status

IRA applied the above framework to estimate McMaster’s tuition revenue from 2017/18 to 2022/23.
Please note that Divinity, Interns & Residents, and Collaborative Nursing were excluded from the tuition revenue projection.
The estimated tuition revenue could change if a program does not set the fee at the maximum level allowed. Also, actual fee revenues also may vary based on changes in enrolment and tuition fee assessments.
Should you have questions concerning the undergraduate or graduate enrolment projection models or would like detailed enrolment data by faculty, please contact Jin Zhang, Senior Analyst (zhangjn@mcmaster.ca) or Will Huang, Programmer and Statistician (huangwl@mcmaster.ca) from the Office of Institutional Research and Analysis.