Projection Assumptions

Office of Institutional Research and Analysis Enrolment Projection Methodology

The projected data provided by IRA for the Budget Model was based on the following methodologies:

Enrolment Projection Model

Undergraduate Enrolment Projection

To project undergraduate enrolment for 2020-21, IRA’s undergraduate enrolment projection model uses McMaster’s actual 2020-21 summer and fall enrolment information as of each government count date, and estimates 2020-21 winter enrolment using historical Fall-to-Winter ratios.  Due to the uncertainty associated with COVID-19, the Fall-to-Winter ratios have been adjusted down using the preliminary 2021 winter enrolment as of November 2020.

Undergraduate enrolment estimates for 2021-22 to 2025-26 are generated by applying the Enrolment Management Team's (EMT) level 1 intake targets from 2021-22 to 2023/24, and hold a flat 2023/24 intake until 2025/26.  To project movement between levels 2 and above, within each Faculty and between Faculties, the projection applies a flow through methodology that incorporates each Faculty’s historical retention rates by level over the past 3 years. The model calculates the average rate over the 3 years for domestic students and applies the minimum rate from the most recent 3 years for international students.  Since the international student population is smaller and more sensitive to change on a year-to-year basis, the calculation is done differently to be on the conservative side.

Graduate Enrolment Projection

Since no level 1 intake targets are set at the graduate level, the graduate enrolment projection model is a flow-through model based on the following two elements:

  1. Each Faculty’s historical level 1 intake; and
  2. By degree and level, transition rates of students
Level 1 Intake:

With the 2020-21 level 1 intake being impacted by COVID-19, the higher level 1 intake between 2019/20 and 2020/21 (i.e. as of November 1, 2019 and November 1, 2020 respectively) was applied as the anticipated level 1 intake from 2021-22 to 2025-26, unless a specific target was provided for future years.

Flow through between levels:

To project movement between levels 2 and above, within each Faculty, the graduate projection applies a flow through methodology that incorporates each Faculty’s average transition rates by degree and level over the past 3 years.

Important notes regarding the undergraduate and graduate enrolment projection models:

  • Actual enrolment data at the student level are used to simulate the undergraduate projections.
  • The projection data includes Fiscal Full-Time Equivalents (FFTEs), headcount and Weighted Grant Unit (WGU) counts by Faculty, level, registration status, immigration status, and fee category.

Student Units Taught Projection Model

Undergraduate Units Taught Projection 

Actual units taught at the Faculty level, as of November 1, 2020, are used to provide the basis for the model. This information along with the Winter term units taught statistics in December are used to generate the projected units taught for 2020/21. In order to project five-year units taught, undergraduate enrolment projections and historical percentages reflecting units taught distribution are used. The historical percentages are based on student home faculty, student academic level, course home faculty, and course level.

Tuition Fee Revenue Projection

The MTCU 2019-20 to 2020-21 Tuition Fee Framework is as follows:

MTCU Tuition Fee Framework

Program Category Maximum Allowable Annual Increase in Tuition Fees
Arts & Science Undergraduate or other

-10.0% for all students for 2019-20; 0.0% for 2020-21

Professional Undergraduate or any Graduate Program

-10.0% for all students for 2019-20; 0.0% for 2020-21

Overall Average Tuition Fee Increase

-10.0% for 2019-20; 0.0% for 2020-21

In compliance with the Ministry’s updated framework, McMaster’s approved internal tuition framework for 2019-20 to 2020-21 and the assumed tuition framework for 2021-22 onward are shown in the following tables:

McMaster's Current Internal Tuition Framework 2020-21 to 2025-26

Domestic

Program Category Maximum Allowable Annual Increase in Tuition Fees
Arts & Science Undergraduate or other 0.0% for all levels for 2020/21 onward
Professional Undergraduate 0.0% for all levels for 2020/21 onward
Graduate Research (programs with a thesis component) 0.0% for all levels for 2020/21 onward
Graduate Professional (programs with course work only) 0.0% for all levels for 2020/21 onward
Overall Average Tuition Fee Increase 0.0% for 2020/21 onward

International

PROGRAM CATEGORY MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE ANNUAL INCREASE IN TUITION FEES
Arts & Science Undergraduate or other 10.0% for level I for 2020/21 and 2022/23; 6.0% for level II and above for 2020/21 and 2022/23; 6.0% for level I for 2023/24 onward; 4.0% for level II and above for 2023/24 onward
Professional Undergraduate Same as above (Arts & Science)
Graduate Research (programs with a thesis component) 0.0% for all levels
Graduate Professional (programs with course work only) 10.0% for level I for 2020/21 and 2022/23; 6.0% for level II and above for 2020/21 and 2022/23; 6.0% for level I for 2023/24 onward; 4.0% for level II and above for 2023/24 onward

 

Current Status

IRA applied the above framework to estimate McMaster’s tuition revenue from 2020/21 to 2025/26.
Please note that Divinity, Interns & Residents, and Collaborative Nursing were excluded from the tuition revenue projection.
The estimated tuition revenue could change if a program does not set the fee at the maximum level allowed. Also, actual fee revenues also may vary based on changes in enrolment and tuition fee assessments.
Should you have questions concerning the undergraduate or graduate enrolment projection models or would like detailed enrolment data by faculty, please contact Will Huang, Senior Project Analyst (huangwl@mcmaster.ca) from the Office of Institutional Research and Analysis.